Ridgeland, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

426
FXUS64 KJAN 250639 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
139 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Overall forecast for the rest of tonight remains on track. An MCV
which had been driving thunderstorm activity over East Texas and
western Louisiana appears to be losing momentum. Convection
without the aid of daytime heating is limping into the western
fringes of our area. Showers or a storm cannot be ruled out
overnight, but will see POPs increase heading into the afternoon
once again with heating and moisture in the region. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Tonight and Friday: The morning mcv and its associated convection
over the southwest has weakened substantially but light showers
remain and have held down temperatures. Elsewhere, daytime heating
of our moist airmass was helping initiate a rash of convection that
will continue to expand in coverage and intensity through late
afternoon into early evening before dissipating. Overall atmospheric
parameters look a little less favorable for strong to severe storm
development than Wednesday afternoon but, a strong wind gust or two
will be possible. Due to slow storm movement, locally heavy
downpours will also accompany the strongest storms. Mid afternoon
water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed a shortwave trough over the
southern Plains. Regional radars showed some vigorous convection
associated with this feature. Much of the convection over our CWA is
expected to be diurnally driven but an outflow boundary and/or
remnant of the convection to our west may help prolong activity in
our CWA again tonight. A persistent surface ridge is expected to
continue to nose back across our CWA from the east through Friday.
The resulting southeast to southerly flow will help maintain our
moist airmass. The shortwave trough to our west this afternoon is
expected to continue shifting east across our region through Friday.
This shortwave is expected to combine with daytime heating Friday
and enhance convection over our CWA. Otherwise, warmer than normal
temperatures will continue tonight and Friday. /22/

This weekend into mid to late next week...

The wet pattern continues into the weekend with perturbed flow over
the region. A series of shortwaves will keep rain chances in the
forecast this weekend, with greatest chances north. Convective rates
and more than ample moisture also support heavier downpours,
especially in deeper cores that develop each afternoon.

We finally dry out Monday with ridging aloft which will support
above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 80s with low 90s
in spots. The reprieve is shortlived, however, so enjoy it while it
lasts. Rain and storms return the middle of next week with the
ejection of a shortwave trough. There could be some stronger storms
associated with this as depicted by the CSU MLP (machine learning
probabilities). A low end severe risk as we get closer is not out
of the question. For now, things look focused in the northwest,
but we will continue to monitor and make forecast adjustments as
necessary./SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

VFR flight categories prevail, but some LIFR stratus & potential
IFR vsby/fog can`t be ruled out with high humidity & recent rains.
Timing of onset is between 25/08-15Z Friday before some
improvement to VFR flight categories. Rain showers & low probs of
storms (20-40%) will be a concern, onset earlier in northwest TAF
sites (GLH & GWO) between 29/12-15Z while later (29/16-20Z)
elsewhere. Light southwesterly winds will prevail through the
06Z TAF period. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       83  65  86  65 /  70  20  30  10
Meridian      84  63  86  63 /  70  20  40  10
Vicksburg     82  66  86  66 /  70  10  30  10
Hattiesburg   87  65  88  66 /  50  10  20  10
Natchez       82  65  84  66 /  60  10  20  10
Greenville    80  67  82  65 /  80  10  40  20
Greenwood     81  66  85  65 /  80  20  30  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/SAS20/DC